Follow the Trends
I was reading about the “Current Market Conditions” in a major mid-western city and the general feeling up there (a leading feeder market for Florida) is that things are getting better and many people that were under water were finally getting the chance to sell and move on. It was written by an appraiser and he had many ways in which to quantify his findings.
Here is an interesting excerpt:
Here are a few things to watch…
- 1. Watch the days on market (DOM). Take time to understand if an area’s high DOM may be due to stale listings of homes that are overpriced, distressed and/or in inferior condition.
- 2. Trend the increasing Sales Price-to-List Price ratios - in many sub-markets that I appraise in, I have seen these trend from 93% to 96% or higher just in the past year.
- 3. Track the number of pendings in relationship to the number of listings? One appraiser friend of mine tracks this and calls this “market velocity.” Right now, I see some areas where there have more pendings than listings in a given sub-market.
- 4. Are the pendings priced higher than the previous sales prices? Another indication of an increasing market that I am seeing in many areas.
All of these trend indicators are area specific and it’s important to take only the information that is found within your neighborhood. If you are thinking about selling, I’d be glad to do a report that includes these specific trends for you and your home. It may surprise you what the trends show!
1/3 of all sales are “short sales” in Florida (2012)
Realty Trac is reporting that 1/3 of all sales made in the state of Florida in 2012 were “short sales”. This is where the lender accepts less money for the home than is owed by the seller. Other states where the percentage of short sales were as high were Michigan and Nevada. Short sales are considered “distressed” properties which includes foreclosures and bank owned sales. All distressed sales nation wide represented a whopping 43% of the market! This can not last forever, in fact, the totals are 6% lower than in 2011 and I feel that this segment of the market will continue to erode over the next few years as banks and underwater homeowners work through the inventory. But make no mistake, the shear numbers of homeowners in distress are still staggering!
The news just keeps getting better!
Mark Lieberman, an economist for the Five Star Institute, reports some encouraging news in DS News this morning. First of all the National Association of Realtors says that pending sales rose 4.5% to 105.9 in January. It was the highest level the PHSI has been in almost three years. Also the Census Bureau and HUD jointly reported that new home sales for January SOARED 15.6 percent. This is the strongest one-month gain in this indicator in 20 years! NAR president Lawrence Yun was quoted as saying ” Over the near term, rising contract activity means higher sales, but total sales for the year are expected to rise less than in 2012, while home prices are projected to rise more strongly because of inventory shortages.” So less inventory (which we have seen in Sarasota), slower sales pace than last year but still growth and higher median prices as the inventory shrinks. That all sounds good to me!
Sarasota Skywalk
On a beautiful January day, Nik Wallenda performs a Skywalk along a 600 ft tightrope 180 ft over Sarasota. Incredible!
Morris Team Handles Record Sale in Harbor Acres
This 8,433-square-foot house at 1486 Hillview Drive in Sarasota’s Harbor Acres sold for $ 7.5 million.
It had been on the market for four months, at $8.85 million.
Read the full article in the Herald-Tribune here >>
Top Ten Turn Around Cities in America
Realtor.com has come out with their top ten turn around cities in the United States. Sarasota is number 5 on the list with a 17% increase in sales and a 2% increase in pricing!
Here is the list:
1. Miami, Florida, at number one, had sales of existing single-family homes shoot up 51 percent in the third quarter compared to a year ago, according to the Miami Association of Realtors. The median age of inventory is down 30 percent from a year ago.
2. Phoenix, Arizona is returning to stability, with median list prices up 15.38 percent compared to a year ago.
3. Orlando, Florida saw its median age of inventory go down to 73 days, a 36 percent drop from a year ago and inventory also declined 44 percent compared to a year ago.
4. Fort Myers-Cape Coral, Florida saw its sale price increase 20 percent over the past year, more than any other Florida market, though sales are down 13 percent.
5. Sarasota-Bradenton, Florida saw an increase in sales by 17 percent over last year. Median list prices were also up 2 percent.
6. Boise City, Idaho experienced a reduction in foreclosures, helping the town also see a 40 percent year-over-year decline in inventory. This reduction in inventory also led to drop a 23.42 drop in the median age of inventory.
7. Naples, Florida had a13.38 percent year-over-year increase in median list prices, and a 35.94 percent reduction in for sale inventory.
8. Fort Lauderdale, Florida reduced its inventory by 41.63 percent since last year, and sales were up 18 percent year-over-year.
9. Lakeland-Winter Haven, Florida increased by 9.09 percent increase in median list prices compared to a year ago. Inventory declined 35.28 percent since last year.
10. Punta Gorda, Florida made the 10th spot with median price appreciation up 17.79 percent compared to a year ago.
Parking Fees
The on again – off again parking meters are set to start charging 50 cents per hour on October 3rd. Here’s what was printed in the Hearld today:
Responding to complaints from merchants, dozens of parking meters and pay stations that lined downtown streets since May have been uprooted and moved to the Sarasota County Judicial Center east of U.S. 301.
Paid parking will return Monday, Oct. 3.
All metered spaces will charge 50 cents per hour until November 1, when a $1 per hour seasonal rate takes effect through April.” … for map
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
When is parking enforced?: Hours are Monday through Saturday, 9 a.m. to 8 p.m.
What is the cost?: 50 cents per hour from May 1. to Oct. 31; $1 per hour from Nov. 1 to April 30.
Can I park somewhere else?: 50 cent-per-hour spots are available at public lots and garages, including the Palm Avenue Garage, which will remain free until Nov. 1
How do I pay?: Paystations accept coins and Visa and MasterCard. A minimum of $1 is required for credit card payments.
Parking Meters…In case you didn’t know.
| METERED PARKING PROGRAM PREP WORK BEGINS |
| Sarasota, FL: Duncan Solutions will begin prep work this week for the installation of parking meters and pay stations in the downtown core. Meters will not be installed this week.Work crews will locate utilities, adjust curbs and dig along First Street, Main Street, State Street, Cocoanut Avenue, Gulfstream, Palm Avenue, and Pineapple Avenue in advance of the installations. While most of the work will be unobtrusive to the public, occasionally a parking space will be unavailable for a short period of time.
The prep work is expected to be completed in about two weeks, although it could take longer depending upon potential issues crews may encounter on site. Meter installation is expected to occur after the prep work. The meters will be bagged until the entire system is operational, which is expected to be in mid-May. Free and low cost public parking still will be available. The metered parking program assigns appropriate value to all public parking resources, with an option for every budget: free, low cost and premium. Nearly 1,400 parking spaces will remain free, including the new Palm Avenue parking garage which will offer complimentary parking through October 2011. Nearby parking structures will cost 50 cents per hour, and premium spaces will be $1.00 per hour, which is standard in the public parking industry. Click here to view a detailed map of the metered parking program. For more information, including answers to frequently asked questions, visitwww.sarasotagov.com or contact Capt. Jeff Karr in the Parking Division: 941-954-7057. |
Interesting Media Placements for Sotheby’s
2011 MEDIA STRATEGY:
- Our collaboration with The Telegraph celebrates the “World’s Best Places to Live”.
- As the best selling quality newspaper in the United Kingdom, The Telegraph has been delivering an established, elite audience for well over 150 years with their website, www.telegraph.co.uk, hosts more than 32 million unique visitors around the world.
- Our exclusive partnership features extraordinary locations around the globe integrated with our network’s listing inventory, making this a powerful and targeted vehicle to reach a worldwide audience. For more information, please see page one and page two in the attached Highlights issue.
- Generating Millions in PR Value, TOO!
- Four Communications is a London-based public relations company that is retained by the Sotheby’s International Realty brand and many affiliates outside the US. Last year the company generated 140 pieces of real estate coverage which is an approximate PR value of $3.5M. To complement our 2011 media plan, Four Communications is working closely with editorial teams to achieve additional coverage for affiliates and listings. For more information, please see page two in the attached Highlights “Generating Millions in PR Value”.
- NEW BRAND EXPOSURE!
- For the next three months, SIR will be promoting our Essence of Extraordinary Brand throughout the SuperYachts.com website and in select sections of their weekly newsletter. www.SuperYachts.com is the leading online source for high-net worth individuals looking to charter, purchase or refit a superyacht. This consumer driven, lifestyle and lead generation site has a global reach in 220 countries. For more information, please see page five in the attached Highlights ?New Brand Exposure”.
New App lets you search listings on your phone
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT:
Matthew Morris
941-320-3960
Matthew.morris@sothebysrealty.com
Signature Sotheby’s International Realty Launches
Mobile Real Estate Application for all Mobile Platforms
Sarasota, FL (Jan. 20, 2011)— Signature Sotheby’s International Realty in Sarasota today announced the launch of a free Sotheby’s International Realty® mobile application and mobile web search, SIR Mobile, that works on standard cell phones and smartphones across all mobile carriers, allowing consumers to view all homes for sale anywhere in the United States.
The Sotheby’s International Realty mobile app uses GPS, when available, to locate the user and display listings in the immediate area. Users also can search by a U.S. address, city or zip code to see property details for all homes for sale in a specified area including price, square footage, estimated mortgage, taxes, features, maps and pictures. By the end of the year users will be able to search for all homes represented by the brand’s network outside the United States.
A Refine Search feature allows users to narrow their search by selecting a price range, property type and number of bedrooms and bathrooms. If a user has questions or wants a tour of the property, the Call feature connects them to a Signature Sotheby’s International Realty representative.
To download the app, consumers can visit this site: http://m.sir.com/m/sothebys/sir/ . The app was created by Smarter Agent, the leading mobile real estate provider in the United States, to create innovative ways for buyers to search for homes and interact with their agents.
“With the launch of this app, Signature Sotheby’s International Realty now can offer clients and prospects a mobile house-hunting tool available across all carriers on standard cell phones and smartphones including BlackBerry, iPhone, Android and the Palm webOS,” said Judy Green, Broker “Consumers now can have instant access to detailed property information right at their fingertips.”
Signature Sotheby’s International Realty is a full service real estate broker with a focus on the truly unique and exceptional properties in and around Sarasota Florida. They service a clientele from around the world that appreciate the level of service and attention unmatched in the industry. Signature Sotheby’s International Realty is located at 50 Central Ave Suite 110 Sarasota, FL 34236.
The Sotheby’s International Realty® network currently has more than 11,000 sales associates located in approximately 500 offices in 42 countries and territories worldwide.
About Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC
Founded in 1976 to provide independent brokerages with a powerful marketing and referral program for luxury listings, the Sotheby’s International Realty network was designed to connect the finest independent real estate companies to the most prestigious clientele in the world. In February 2004, Realogy Corporation, a global provider of real estate and relocation services, entered into a long-term strategic alliance with Sotheby’s, the operator of the auction house. The agreement provided for the licensing of the Sotheby’s International Realty name and the development of a full franchise system by Realogy’s subsidiary, Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Affiliations in the system are granted only to brokerages and individuals meeting strict qualifications. Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC supports its affiliates with a host of operational, marketing, recruiting, educational and business development resources. Franchise affiliates also benefit from an association with the venerable Sotheby’s auction house, established in 1744. For more information, visit www.sothebysrealty.com.
500 Homes and 181 condos sell in December – SAR Reports
Sales surge in December 2010 and prices remain stable
The Sarasota real estate market saw a big surge in December sales, from 534 in November to 681 last month for a 27.8 percent increase. In addition, the median sales price for both single family homes and condos was up in December 2010, indicating a recovering local real estate market. The property sales breakdown in December 2010 was 500 single family home sales and 181 condos.
The statistics for December 2010 were even better than December 2009. The 681 total sales reported last month topped the 648 sales in December 2009. The median sale price for single family homes stood at $165,000, a small drop from last year’s figure of $170,000, but higher than the November 2010 figure of $160,100. For condos, the median price rose slightly to $160,000 from the previous month’s $159,000, down from last December’s median of $199,000. But condo prices have sunk below the $150,000 level several times in 2010, so the current figure indicates a sign of improvement.
Pending sales remained strong in December 2010 at 789, compared to 764 in November 2010, and higher than the 739 reported last December, when the market was still strengthened by the homebuyer tax credit initiative. This statistic is a strong indicator for the next two or three months of sales, as pending sales reflect current buyer activity.
“2010 ended with a resurgent local real estate market, and the higher number of pending sales tells me we could see continued strength in early 2011,” said SAR President Michael Bruno. “For the second half of 2010, there was a fairly steady trend in sales and prices, another sign of stability and recovery. Word of mouth indicates we are seeing more showings and more closings this season than we have in quite a while. And this year, we don’t have the homebuyer tax credit to point to as a reason for the surge. Sarasota is just a great place to purchase a property.”
Inventory dipped in December 2010 to 6,047 from 6,207 - the lowest since August 2010 when 6,039 properties were on the market. The higher sales volume and lower inventory levels meant a major drop in the months of inventory to 7.8 months for single family homes (from 10.9 months in November 2010), and 11.7 months for condos (from 13.3 months in November 2010). The market is considered to be in equilibrium between a buyers and sellers market once the figure reaches the 6 month level
There was also more good news on the distressed property sales front, as short sales and foreclosure sales once again fell to 44 percent of overall sales, from 46 percent last month. For the entire year 2010, distressed sales made up 36 percent of overall sales.
”The fact that we’re trending downward for distressed property sales is encouraging,” noted Bruno. “We are all hoping 2011 is a turning point and the worst is behind us. The improving national economic picture and recent drop in the national unemployment rate are signs that the economy is heading in the right direction.”
Overall, 2010 sales were up 12.4 percent compared to 2009 – 7,603 to 6,739 total sales. The median sale price for both single family homes and condos for 2010 stood at $163,000. For 2009, the median sale price for single family was also $163,000, and for condos was $190,000.
Sales in the Sarasota market have now risen for two consecutive years since a low point of 5,820 sales in 2008. The level of sales is now at its highest point since 2005.
Signature Sotheby’s meets Premier Sotheby’s in Naples
Signature Sotheby\’s meets Premier Sotheby\’s in Naples
Siesta Key Sandcastles Competition
Today we took Karen Flannigan and Melissa Rickey to the Siesta Key Sandcastle Competition. It was a really good turn out! Take a look at some of the pictures:
Winning sculpture
Karen, Maureen and Melissa
You Tube – Out of Door Academy
Watch this video clip about ODA. Our sone got a great start at this school and we really think it’s one of the best schools in Florida. It is just another great reason to move to Sarasota!
http://www.youtube.com/odathunder
Signature Sotheby’s in Sarasota and Premier Sotheby’s in Naples join forces!
Judy Green has done it again! In just over a year she has created the largest real estate firm on the gulf coast when she formed a new company by combining Premier Properties, a well established realty firm specializing in high end properties in and around Naples, Florida, and our company here is Sarasota, Signature Sotheby’s International Realty.
I have copied our news release here:
Signature Sotheby’s International Realty merges with Premier Sotheby’s International Realty.
I am pleased to announce that we have merged with Premier Properties of Southwest Florida in Naples. Premier Properties of Southwest Florida has joined the Sotheby’s International Realty® network, and will now operate as Premier Sotheby’s International Realty. In Sarasota, we will continue to operate as Signature Sotheby’s International Realty.
Together, we enjoy the largest market share in Southwest Florida, with over $1.3 billion in closed sales this year.
We remain the same company, with the same leadership and the same top-performing real estate team. And we continue to enjoy the global resources of a legendary brand – including the most widely viewed showcase of distinguished properties, in print and online, in the world.
Only now we are expanding our reach along Florida’s Gulf Coast, and uniting the leading luxury real estate brokerages in Sarasota and Naples. To us and our clients, it represents a union of complementary strengths.
The result, we believe, will be a new energy within our company, and an increasing competitive advantage in the Southwest Florida luxury market as we look to the future.
First Time Buyers higher than at any time in the past…says NAR
That’s up from 47 percent in the previous 12-month period, and the highest share of first-time home buyers in the history of NAR’s study, which dates back to 1981. The previous cyclical high for first-time buyers was 44 percent in 1991.
The trade group attributed its findings to the success of the federal government’s homebuyer tax credits that began in 2009. Ninety-three percent of first-time buyers during the July 2009-June 2010 period used the first-time buyer tax credit, according to NAR.
Fifty-six percent of entry level buyers financed their purchase with a Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loan, while another 7 percent used the Veterans Affairs (VA) loan program.
Forty-two percent said financing their first home was more difficult than expected and 9 percent had been rejected by a lender.
NAR’s profile shows the median age of first-time buyers was 30 and the median income was $59,900. The typical first-time buyer purchased a 1,540 square foot home costing $152,000. Ninety-five percent chose a fixed-rate mortgage.
First-time buyers who made a down payment used a variety of sources: 74 percent used savings, 27 percent received a gift from a friend or relative, and 9 percent received a loan from someone they knew. Eight percent tapped into a 401(k) fund, and 6 percent sold stocks or bonds.
The lion’s share of buyers – both first-timers and previous homeowners – view their home as a good investment, according to Paul Bishop, NAR’s VP of research.
“Eighty-five percent of recent home buyers see their home as a good investment, and nearly half think that investment is better than stocks,” he said.
“Even with the turmoil created by the housing boom and bust, this indicates the long-term view of home ownership as a fundamental goal and value remains sound,” Bishop said.
But NARsays it’s concerned that today’s credit policy restrictions are locking responsible borrowers out of a sustainable model for home ownership. The trade group issued an announcement last week urging the mortgage lending industry to reassess and amend their policies so more qualified home buyers can become homeowners.
Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and FHA currently account for more than 90 percent of the mortgage market.
NAR says lenders refuse to make loans unless FHAwill insure them or the GSEs will buy them. However stricter underwriting rules from the government agencies eliminate many buyers with credit scores as high as 750, and lenders are imposing credit overlays of their own, restricting the availability of credit, according to the trade group.
“Under current practices, many would-be home buyers who could responsibly, affordably become home owners are unable to do so,” said 2010 NAR President Vicki Cox Golder. “NAR wants to ensure that anyone who is able and willing to assume the responsibilities of owning a home should have the opportunity to pursue that dream.”
The organization has vowed to increase mortgage lending to qualified borrowers, and as part of that policy, has begun developing educational materials for Realtors and consumers about credit issues, including the importance of good credit, lender credit policies, and how to find a fair and affordable mortgage.
NAR says it also plans to work with FHA, the GSEs, private lenders, and federal regulators to encourage them to assess their credit policies on a regular basis, and will urge them to re-evaluate their policies regarding which homeowners can qualify for loan modifications, short sales, or deeds-in-lieu of foreclosure to help more borrowers keep their homes or rebuild their credit.
More Downward Pressure Seen in National Markets
Analysts See 7% Drop in Home Prices over Next Year
11/15/2010 By: Carrie Bay 
financial services technology company sees double-dip territory ahead for many major markets, particularly those that saw the strongest appreciation during the spring and summer months of this year.
Prices of single-family homes rose an average of 3.6 percent during the second quarter of 2010 compared to a year earlier, according to the Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes. As of the end of June, the median U.S. home price was $177,000, as tracked by Fiserv.
Fiserv says the annual increase in the national reading was driven by strong price increases in relatively high-priced markets, such as San Diego, Washington, D.C., and the San Francisco Bay area.
But despite the gain in the national average, prices actually fell in 70 percent of the 384 metro areas, compared to the 2009 second quarter. Many markets experienced double-digit drops, including Detroit; Boise, Idaho; Reno, Nevada, and many smaller markets in Florida and Oregon.
Fiserv notes that much of the sustained activity in the first half of the year was due to the federal government’s homebuyer tax credit that expired in June. Since then, home sales activity has plummeted.
In addition to the aftereffects of the tax credit, factors weighing on the housing market include chronic high unemployment and the large number of distressed
properties that remain in markets such as Florida, Arizona, and Nevada.
Taking these factors into consideration, Fiserv says it expects home prices will drop over the next four quarters in nearly all metro markets before they start to stabilize at the end of 2011, provided there are no downside surprises for the economy or the housing and mortgage markets.
“Some of the largest declines in prices will occur in markets that had strong spring and summer 2010 price increases,” said David Stiff, Fiserv’s chief economist. “This is because the home buyer tax credit delayed the correction in home prices that is necessary to return housing affordability to its pre-bubble levels.”
Stiff points to the Phoenix market as a prime example. There, prices increased by 5.5 percent from the 2009 second quarter to the 2010 second quarter, but Fiserv is forecasting a 16 percent decline in Phoenix home prices by the second quarter of 2011.
Steep drops in home prices are expected to continue in markets that have been hurt most by the housing crisis.
From the second quarter of 2010 through the second quarter of 2011, Fiserv predicts home price declines of 12.4 percent in Nevada; 11.5 percent in Arizona; 9.4 percent in Florida; and 12.7 percent in the District of Columbia.
The analysts at Standard & Poor’s also released their forecast for the path of home prices on Monday. They anticipate an additional 7 percent to 10 percent drop through 2011.
“Low mortgage rates will likely continue to encourage refinancing, but their influence on homebuying activities has been limited due to the weak housing market and a lack of demand,” said Erkan Erturk, a credit analyst for S&P.
The ratings agency says a range of other key factors are also hampering a recovery in the housing market, including an elevated, but declining level of short sales and distressed asset sales.
S&P also points to the large backlog of distressed properties that have yet to be re-marketed for sale, high unemployment, and the ongoing foreclosure paperwork crisis as impeding any meaningful recovery for housing.
Do you want a Bank Deal? End of Year timming may be right.
Banks Prepare to Shed Nonperformers as Year-End Nears
11/15/2010 By: Carrie Bay
With the dawning of a new year comes the sense of starting fresh and leaving the previous year’s baggage behind. A number of mortgage lenders are applying this same adage to their loan portfolios as the closeof 2010 nears, and selling off blocks of nonperforming mortgage assets to clean up their balance sheets for a new year of business.
It’s a common trend for banks to get their house in order during the fourth quarter of a fiscal year, but this year, it seems there’s a larger pool of eager buyers for soured real estate assets.
Flagstar Bancorp said Monday that it has closed on a sale of $474 million in nonperforming first-mortgage home loans. The transaction cuts the bank’s level of residential first-mortgage nonperformers by 70 percent.
The name of the buyer was not disclosed, but according to American Banker, Flagstar, which is the largest **publicly held savings bank headquartered in the Midwest, sold off the assets for 44 cents on the dollar.
Whitney Holding Corporation in New Orleans announced late last month that it has agreed to sell approximately $180 million of nonperforming loans during the fourth quarter. Whitney’s offering is comprised of both residential and commercial mortgages primarily in the state of Florida.
The company said it expects proceeds of $100 million from the sale of the $180 million in problem loans, and because
of “the successful signing of this sales contract and improved overall market interest,” Whitney has reclassified an additional $100 million of nonperforming loans as held for sale. The sale of these too is expected before year-end.
“The primary objective of these transactions is to accelerate both the disposition of our problem assets and our exit from the effects of the credit cycle, which will contribute significantly to a faster recovery in earnings and an improved return for our shareholders,” said John C. Hope, III, chairman and CEO of Whitney Holding Corporation.
Hope continued, “Because of our strong capital base and an improved market for asset sales, we are opportunistically disposing of these problem assets and placing ourselves in an excellent position to begin a return to consistent, quarterly profitability in the first quarter of 2011.”
Williams Merchant Group, an affiliate of Oklahoma-based Williams, Williams & McKissick, which includes Williams & Williams and Auction Network, announced last week that it is selling a regional-bank pool of 20 nonperforming residential mortgage loans spread across seven states, with an average principal balance of $301,322.
The company says the pool of assets should be attractive to a large number of investors due to its size, geographic diversity, and relative value. Williams Merchant Group described the offering as “unique” because the seller is willing to consider financing the entire pool or allow buyers to purchase the notes individually.
The commercial real estate services firm Jones Lang LaSalle said last week that it has begun marketing the sale of senior notes secured by a $160 million nonperforming first mortgage on the Omni Center and Hilton Downtown in Miami, on behalf of Capmark Bank.
Banks’ shedding of the old may just be a sign that they’re making room for more nonperforming assets on their books. Industry surveys of lenders and market participants indicate that foreclosure activity and dispositions of properties are [pay attention now...] likely to accelerate during 2011 and 2012.
Signature Sotheby’s is in the news!
Please check out the article in yesterday’s paper about Judy Green and the growth of Signature Sotheby’s International Realty in Sarasota! Our broker is really putting together a great team of agents and support people. We continue to provide the very best marketing and promotional products available for our sellers and it is starting to show in the numbers!
Click here for the article: http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20101101/ARTICLE/11011014/2413/BUSINESS?Title=Signature-Sotheby-s-making-mark-in-local-market
Portfolio Magazine link
The latest 2010 edition of Sotheby’s Portfolio magazine is out and was inserted in the Wall Street Journal today. Here’s your link to the digital copy of Portfolio:
http://www.sierramediagroup.com/Spring 2010 Portfolio Florida/
ENJOY!
Positive Angles
Here’s the latest news article from Positive Angles. There is plenty of good news in the market if you’re willing to look for it. This service has assembled housing reports from around the country. Since a great deal of our business comes from the Northern markets, it’s good to see that some of these “feeder” areas are on the rebound.
Click here for the full story: http://invision.sotheby.mindmatrix.net/LiveContent/Emails/37984/PositiveAngles_Issue3-6_FINAL_(2).pdf
The forcast calls for PAIN
We continue to get mixed messages from the various news organizations about home prices which I think just frightens most buyers. We have had one negative and two positive articles in our local paper in just the past three days! The positive articles generally talk about the increased volume (more homes and condos are selling than last year at this time), and the negative articles report that, for the most part, prices are down…way down from the peak in 2006.
This “saw-toothed bottom” will be the norm for three or more years in my opinion. No disasterous decline, no apprecable increase. Just as some inventory gets snapped up, other homes will hit the market to replace them. And this won’t just come from banks and short sales. A recent national survey included in Zillow’s Q1 Real Estate Market Reports reported that 7% of homeowners were ” very likely” to put their home on the market. That represents 5,320,000 homes in the United States and is more than all the homes that were sold in 2009! 8% of those suveyed said they were “likely” to put thier home on the market and another 14% said they were “somewhat likely” to list their homes.
I think the latter two groups will list their homes if they perceive any sign that the economy is improving. Therefor this pent-up supply or “shadow inventory” will continue to keep prices at these levels ( a little up…a little down) for the forseeable future.
Here is an article from the Washington Post that sums up the latest Case-Shiller report:
WASHINGTON – May 26, 2010 – Home prices remained weak through the early months of this year, according to a closely watched housing index released Tuesday, an indication that the housing market continues to struggle despite recent improvements.
The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index showed that prices of single-family homes were down 0.5 percent between February and March, the sixth consecutive month-over-month decline. On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices were flat, according to the index.
Prices in 13 of the 20 cities tracked by the index fell in March, including the Washington region, where prices were down 0.7 percent. Detroit and Minneapolis saw the largest price declines, 4.1 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively.
The housing market is in a tentative recovery. Sales of previously owned homes jumped nearly 8 percent in April compared with the previous month, for example. And there was some positive news in the Case-Shiller data: Prices were up about 2.3 percent compared with the same period last year.
“The housing market may be in better shape than this time last year; but when you look at recent trends, there are signs of some renewed weakening in home prices,” David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s, said in statement.
The recent weakness in prices is disappointing given record-low mortgage rates and a homebuyer tax credit that helped boost sales through the first few months of this year, analysts said. The tax credit expired last month, and home sales are expected to decline in its absence.
“We haven’t turned the corner on home prices,” said Steven Ricchiuto, chief economist for Mizuho Securities in New York.
The Case-Shiller index measures repeat sales of homes and reflects a rolling three-month average, so the March data also captured transactions that closed in February and January.
There is still an oversupply of homes on the market, particularly foreclosures, said Patrick Newport, U.S. economist for IHS Global Insight. Foreclosed properties typically sell at a discount, bringing down neighboring home values.
The “housing glut and foreclosures” will drive the Case-Shiller index down another 6 to 8 percent before reaching bottom in 2011, Newport said. “Prices appeared to stabilize late last year, and they are now starting to edge down again,” he said. “With the tax credit gone, sales are going to drop, and we’re going to see that trend continue.”
Another index tracking price changes in homes with loans backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac provided a mixed picture. Prices of homes sold in March were up slightly, 0.3 percent, compared with February, according to data released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which regulates the mortgage-finance companies. But that increase was offset by a 1.9 percent decline in prices during the first quarter compared with the previous quarter and a 3 percent decline compared with the first quarter of 2009.
While prices fell in most cities tracked by the FHFA index, the Washington region saw a significant improvement. Of the 25 largest metro areas, home prices increased the most, nearly 12 percent, in the Washington region in the first quarter compared with the first quarter of 2009.
Overall, home prices are likely to gradually fall an additional 5 percent through the end of 2011, said Paul Dales, an economist at Capital Economics. “I don’t think we’re going to get anything like the crash [in prices] we had before,” he said. “It won’t be a disaster, but it will undermine the wider economic recovery.”
Copyright © washingtonpost.com
Pricing and the Foreclosures to come
Here’s an interesting blog article I found regarding the coming foreclosures that some think will keep downward pressure on prices for some time. http://www.google.com/reader/view/#stream/user%2F00893875234044064666%2Fstate%2Fcom.google%2Fbroadcast
Latest Positive Angles article
Tired of all the doom and gloom? Put a little “positive angle” on things with their latest issue here: Positive Angles
Extraordinary Living Continues…
About a year ago a truly unique collaboration between the Wall Street Journal and Sotheby’s International Realty was created, linking these two venerable and trusted names together. The concept was to bring a greater awareness of the fine homes represented by Sotheby’s International Realty to the readers of the Wall Street Journal in a savvy and precise web presence within the Wall Street Journal website. A great deal of research indicated that the individuals visiting the Wall Street Journal website shared many of the traits of our targeted market. They were “the connoisseurs of life!” They called the new collaboration: ”The Business of Extraordinary Living.”
This was to be something very different from anything the two companies had done before. Of course another real estate company could still advertise in the Journal but Sotheby’s International Realty would actually have an exclusive ”microsite” linked directly within the real estate section of wsj.com. There are 35 million visitors per month to wsj.com so this would provide an amazing opportunity to present our fine homes and properties front and center to this highly-targeted market. Our goal was also to increase the awareness of our brand and continue the association of Sotheby’s International Realty with the finer things in life.
During the past year we conducted research with the Wall Street Journal to validate the effectiveness of our collaborative efforts. Firstly we found that there were almost 29 million impressions delivered in 2009. The average time on the site was 5 minutes, and banner ad click-through rates for this site were three and a half times more effective than industry averages. Of the people who responded to our survey, 76.4% found our site “helpful” while 87.3% found it to be “appealing” and 58.2% had a more favorable opinion of the Sotheby’s International Realty brand after visiting the microsite.
In 2010 visits to the real estate section of wsj.com continue to increase at a rapid pace, where traffic to the real estate page has ballooned by 38%, representing an average of one million individual viewers per month! Specific statistics show that detailed property views on wsj.com for listings represented by Sotheby’sInternational Realty are up 205%! This year, we will see an increased exposure of The Business of Extraordinary Living site on wsj.com, delivering 60 million impressions, which is essentially double the exposure that was delivered in 2009. The microsite has been enhanced to allow for a better engagement with the visitors by providing local content within THE ADDRESS section of the site entitled “Featured Listing”. Demographic related content will be automatically served up to each unique visitor based on their location and behavior. This will result in an increase of authentic, targeted leads being provided to the listings our network represents.
As an extension of our relationship with The Wall Street Journal, we have been able to negotiate an extremely effective online campaign with TIMES ONLINE, the producers of one of the United Kingdom’s top quality daily and premier Sunday newspapers. Through a combination of banner ads and featured properties of the week text links, TIMES ONLINE will deliver 1.5 million targeted impressions against an internationally elite audience from Continental Europe, the Middle East, Russia and the Far East.
By visiting The Business of Extraordinary Living microsite and TIMES ONLINE ,we hope that consumers will enjoy learning more about our unique brand, our network of fine professionals and our commitment of artfully uniting extraordinary homes with extraordinary lives.
check it out here: http://online.wsj.com/ad/sir
Signature Sotheby’s International Realty is a part of this incredible association and our clients benefit from the unparalleled exposure their properties receive from these and many other unique partnerships established throughout the world. Maureen and I are truly honored to be a part of this collaboration and feel that our clients could not get this type of coverage with any other brand.
Sarasota Mayor swims with the Sharks for Google
The competition heats up for what city will be named the test site for Google’s new high speed Internet network connection. Sarasota’s Mayor got in the swim of things by jumping into a tank full of sharks at Mote Marine to get the attention of Google executives. Watch this clip from News channel 8 to see what happens.
http://www2.tbo.com/video/2010/mar/17/sarasota-mayor-swims-with-sharks–44264/video-news/
In Depth Analysis of the Market
This link will take you to a well researched Sarasota market report for the fourth quarter of 2009. It’s produced by Realtor.org and will give you some insight into what we’ve been dealing with in this market.
Pay special attention to the drivers of supply and demand, job creation, and Florida’s economy in general. The state needs to improve dramatically in these areas before we will see any appreciation in home prices. The good news is that we now are more affordable than most other parts of the nation! With the exception of 2003 to 2007, Florida has always been an affordable state.
So I guess its “back to basics”…warm weather, beautiful beaches and golf courses, cheap housing, no state income taxes, nearby highly rated hospitals, and baseball spring training…the perfect place to retire!
Sarasota Association of Realtors – February Report
Short Sales and bank owned deals dominated the sales volume in Sarasota again in February accounting for nearly half of all sales. Here are your February stats from the SAR.
I Love the Van Wezel!
Enjoyed the Moody Blues at the Van Wezel last night. The old rock band from the early 70s put on a great show and there wasn’t an empty seat in the house!
What a gem we have here in Sarasota! Just look at the line-up for the month of March at the Van Wezel:
Itzhak Perlman,The Odessa Philharmonic Orchestra, the Joffrey Ballet, The Moody Blues, Coney Francis with Bobby Lewis, Cirque Le Masque, Porgy and Bess, Pink Floyd and more! All in one month!!
And people think that if you don’t get tickets early you can’t get them…not always true. We met a couple last night that sat next to us in the fifth row that got tickets AT THE DOOR! They were returns that someone bought and returned that night. We bought our tickets MONTHS in advance.
So take your chances if there’s someting you’d like to see and go to the box office the night of the concert.
And support the “Purple Palace”! Just another reason Sarasota is such a great place to live.
Monthly Statistics from SAR
The numbers are in for January and things do look much better than last year at this time. Just back from a seminar in Tampa where the guest speaker was Hank Fishkind. The general consensus is that we are bottoming out and things will continue to improve SLOWLY for the next 3 or 4 years. One of the interesting things mentioned is that just about everyone thought interest rates will go up by the end of this year. Most thought we will see 8% mortgage rates in 2011. It may truely be the best time to buy while things are bumping along the bottom and interest rates are low. I had a client voice what may buyers are thinking…”this may not be the exact bottom, but it’s close enough”. Click here for the SAR numbers: http://www.sarasotarealtors.com/Jan2010Stats.pdf
Need Some Vacation Music
Here’s a little fun music from the movie “Couples Retreat”. Not the best movie but I liked this tune…Enjoy!
04 NaNa
Promotional Book – $2 million and above
Maureen and I have a service that I don’t think anyone else is providing. If you have a home worth more than $2 million, we will include a very nice hard bound book as a marketing tool in our advertising campaign. We’ve done it now for the last two high end homes we listed AND SOLD. It works very well. Just click on one of these books to go to our “book store” and see our latest creations.
Trends Magazine
We just published our annual Trends Magazine along with Signature Sotheby’s International Realty. It breaks down Sarasota county by neighborhood and gives some very interesting insight. Check it out here: http://issuu.com/signaturesir/docs/morris_team?mode=embed&layout=http%3A%2F%2Fskin.issuu.com%2Fv%2Fdarkicons%2Flayout.xml&showFlipBtn=true
Best Places to Retire
Sarasota consistently places in the top 10 places to retire in many different publications. From Money Magazine to AARP, they all recommend Sarasota as a place with plenty of features for an active and enjoyable retirement. Here’s a link to a Yahoo article about CNBC’s best of the best places for “Bommers” to retire. Sarasota ranked fourth! No other town in Florida even ranked in this poll.
http://realestate.yahoo.com/promo/americas-top-places-for-boomers-to-retire
Weekly Rates
Happy Super Bowl Sunday!
Here are the weekly rates from the Penny Hill Group
Weekly Rate Sheet
Featured Programs: 2/5/10
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Conforming |
Jumbo |
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30 Year Fixed 5.000% (0 points) |
30 Year Fixed 5.875% (0 points) |
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15 Year Fixed 4.375% (0 points) |
5/1 ARM, 30 Year Amortization 5.250% (0 points) |
We Are Always Here For You
Penny Hill 941-361-5752
Scott Kolbe 941-361-5731
Significant Sales
Morris Team Significant Sales on Siesta Key
SARASOTA, FL. (February 3, 2010) – Signature Sotheby’s International Realty is pleased to announce that Sales Associates Matt and Maureen Morris sold three of the top six highest priced single family homes sold on Siesta Key in 2009.
The homes sold were 850 Mangrove Point Road, 163 Siesta Drive and 620 Mangrove Point Road listed by Matt and Maureen Morris, Signature Sotheby’s International Realty.
“We are very excited about the sales and our ability to effectively market these properties to potential buyers from around the world”, said Matt Morris, Sales Associate. “The world-wide exposure we achieved for our properties though the Sotheby’s International Realty network is unrivaled.”
“Sales of this magnitude solidify our belief that exceptional properties are being sought out and purchased even in this challenging market”, said Judy Green, Broker/Owner.
These significant sales and other exceptional properties sold in 2009 by Signature Sotheby’s International Realty can be seen at www.oursignatureblog.com.
About Signature Sotheby’s International Realty
Local expertise. Global connections. As Sarasota, Manatee and Charlotte County’s exclusive Sotheby’s affiliate, Signature Sotheby’s International Realty artfully unites extraordinary properties with extraordinary lives. Focusing on the customer, the company is proud to carry the centuries-old reputation of the Sotheby’s brand and its time honored tradition of providing exceptional service. As part of the Sotheby’s global network of more than 10,700 sales associates in more than 500 offices in the U.S. and 40 other countries and territories, Signature Sotheby’s International Realty connects buyers and sellers from around the world. For more information, visit www.signaturesir.com.
About Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC
Founded in 1976 to provide independent brokerages with a powerful marketing and referral program for luxury listings, the Sotheby’s International Realty network was designed to connect the finest independent real estate companies to the most prestigious clientele in the world. In February 2004, Realogy Corporation, a global provider of real estate and relocation services, entered into a long-term strategic alliance with Sotheby’s, the operator of the auction house. The agreement provided for the licensing of the Sotheby’s International Realty name and the development of a full franchise system by Realogy’s subsidiary, Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Affiliations in the system are granted only to brokerages and individuals meeting strict qualifications. Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC supports its affiliates with a host of operational, marketing, recruiting, educational and business development resources. Franchise affiliates also benefit from an association with the venerable Sotheby’s auction house, established in 1744. For more information, visit www.sothebysrealty.com.
Weekly Interest Rates
We work closely with the Penny Hill Group at Wells Fargo and they are kind enough to provide a weekly mortgage interest rate sheet.
This week’s rates:
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Conforming |
Jumbo |
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30 Year Fixed 5.125% (0 points) |
30 Year Fixed 5.875% (0 points) |
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15 Year Fixed 4.500% (0 points) |
5/1 ARM, 30 Year Amortization 5.250% (0 points) |
Myakka Float Trip
We’ve all come to cherish the many cultural delights that Sarasota has to offer. From the Van Wezel Performing Arts Hall to the Asolo and Burns Court Theaters to Jazz on the Circle at St Armands and the West Coast Symphony, we love that Sarasota has so many cultural things to do. But equally important to the lifestyle that makes Sarasota so unique is it’s many State and local parks.
Today I’d like to tell you about a paddle trip we took down the Myakka River.
We started at the Myakka River State Park which is about 15 minutes east of US 41 and Stickney Point Road. Just follow State Road 70 (Clark Road) all the way out and look for the signs to the park. There is a $6.00 fee per car load to get in the park and if you are going to paddle down the river you must register at the ranger station entrance. They only allow 30 people per day to enter the preserve area down river so it really stays quiet and peaceful. Once inside the park, we put in at the canoe and kayak launch at the first bridge. You’ll see it on the right just before the bridge.
From here you are about 5 miles to the far side of the lower lake and about 19 miles to Snook Haven. Paddling to the lower lake in the morning, stopping for lunch and paddling back up river to the park makes for a good day trip but this time we decided to go all the way to Snook Haven spending the night on the river. This makes an easy 2 day paddle and is fun to do some primitive camping along the way.
My brother from North Carolina drove down to join us. He was glad to get out of the cold and sleet that was raveging the peidmont that week. Also in attendence was my son-in-law Andreas Kurland, my grandson Alek, and my future son-in-law Kevin Segall. It was a chest thumping “guys trip”.
The weather was perfect, the water level was just right (4.35 ft), and nobody got eaten by alligators!
Here’s a link to see the pictures if you are interested: View Album
A Day In The Life In Sarasota Florida
This may be the best video of what Sarasota is all about. The gifts that Sarasota has to offer and the lifestyle of people who are lucky enough to call Sarasota home!
Monthly Sales Statistics for Sarasota County
Click here for your monthly sales statistics from the Sarasota MLS:
Looks like things in Sarasota continue to improve with sales up dramatically from a year ago with many properties selling at a steep discount from their high a few years back. Inventories continue to shrink and the best deals are getting picked up pretty quickly. Sarasota has bucked the national trend and is showing signs, that if we are at the bottom, the way up will begin here in southwest Florida.
Back to Basics
It was supposed to be an easy win against a team that wasn’t even rated. We were number one in the district with a good shot at going all the way. What happened was a sloppy loss in the last minutes of the game.
It was my junior year in high school in a tobacco and textile town in North Carolina where people take basketball serious. This is an area of the country that follows Blue Devils and Tar Heels with a frenzy that only ends each year after “March Madness”. That passion for the game is as intense in most of the high schools and mine was a regular competitor in the annual state finals.
We had won 4 straight games and were feeling pretty sure of ourselves…cocky some would say. But this attitude and our careless play got us into trouble. We were shocked and embarrassed by the loss. As the final buzzer sounded, I felt faint and it seemed like the world was spinning in the wrong direction as the visiting team celebrated their come-from-behind win.
In the locker room, coach gathered us around for our post game talk. These were usually talks about what we had done right and a time to congratulate each of us for our efforts. A look of disappointment was apparent in his face as he said three words, turned and walked out of the room: “Fundamentals boys… fundamentals”. We spent the rest of the season practicing passes, dribbling, and simple lay-ups for hours and hours until we had sharpened our skills and dulled our bravado.
As the end of 2009 approaches and we start looking for signs of where we are going from here in the real estate market, I’m reminded again to look at the fundamentals. Let’s start with the things that make Sarasota so appealing in the first place. The weather, beach, restaurants, golf courses, theaters, state parks, low crime rate, boating and fishing, sporting events, appealing neighborhoods, and good health care facilities. Stack them up against any town around the world and you’ve got a winner in anyone’s book. I’m especially encouraged by the foreign buyer who can afford to live anywhere in the world and still chooses Sarasota for all she has to offer. At Signature Sotheby’s International Realty, we’ve seen more and more of these buyers this year…truly a good sign for our future.
About a year ago, when we seemed buried in Ponzi schemes, mortgage frauds, flippers and foreclosures, and prices looked like they would never stop falling, my brother, who still lives in North Carolina, called and said ”Now let me get this straight, it still doesn’t SNOW in Sarasota, right? What’s the average daytime temperature in January compared to the rest of the country? Can you still catch snook right from your dock, play golf most any day of the year, and ride your bicycle to the beach?” After a short pause he then said “don’t worry about it…it will come back.” You see he was a senior on that basketball team from high school when we lost that game and he took this moment to remind me how simple things really are.
The basic fundamentals have not changed. Sarasota will continue to be an attractive place to retire, move your business, raise a family and enjoy life for many, many years to come. Sure, some of us got a little cocky and thought prices could never come down. But these attitudes have a way of correcting themselves. Today’s prices reflect a unique opportunity for those savvy enough to recognize how soon we will all get back to the basic fundamentals.
Downtown Sarasota Condo Update
Yes things are getting better in general, but what’s happening with downtown Sarasota condos?
My last post hailed the fact that existing home sales are up an astounding 10% nationally, but all real estate is very localized. People want to know what’s happening in my town, my neighborhood, even my street or condo!!
Here are some facts for the zip code 34236 which includes condos on Lido along with the downtown area:
1. There are still about 400 condos on the market. This number has not changed appreciably for most of 2009.
2. There are 63 pending sales. This is up almost 250% from a year ago but 60% of them are “short sales or bank owned” meaning they may never close. Many have been in pending status for several months which has swollen this category out of proportion. If one assumes that only 20% of those pending short sales will eventually close, then the real number of pending sales is more in line with the current sales volume.
3. Sales for the last 3 months have averaged 22.3 per month. 19% of those sales are either bank owned or short sales. This means we still have about 18 months of inventory on hand and most economists believe that a 6 month supply represents a healthy, balanced market. It also shows that the sellers in this market must compete with the bank owned and short sales head to head…these cheap “under priced” comps are no longer an anomaly that the seller or potential seller can dismiss.
A year ago it was very difficult to say what some of these properties were worth because there hadn’t been enough recent sales to justify ANY offer. Now, at least, there have been sales and buyers are feeling more comfortable to make offers in line with those sales.
In the final analysis, I do think we are building a base here at the end of 2009 and prices will SLOWLY move upward from here. The best inventory is getting picked up and prices have been stabilizing. My co-workers and I are seeing an increase in activity with showings and offers and October/November is usually a very quiet time of year!
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